DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251724
SWODY2
SPC AC 251723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CNTRL U.S. WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED IN THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS SD WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
SCNTRL MN AND CNTRL WI INTO LOWER MI. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. THE CAP IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS
CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OR LINE MAY MOVE
SEWD ACROSS MN AND WI DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING...POSSIBLY
REACHING LOWER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER WEST IN THE DAKOTAS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC
LOW.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT ABERDEEN
SD...MINNEAPOLIS MN AND GREEN BAY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 F WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AROUND 2000 J/KG WHICH
COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM AND THE
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT. IN THIS CASE...THE ASSOCIATED LINE-SEGMENT WOULD HAVE A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS
THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE THE
STEEPER IN WCNTRL MN AND THE DAKOTAS SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR HAIL
WILL BE GREATEST THERE.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2013

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