DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091722
SWODY2
SPC AC 091720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI AUG 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...WITH RELATIVELY
DRY SURFACE AIR OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OFF THE SE COAST WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING FL FROM
THE E.

A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE VA/NC BORDER
WWD INTO ERN OK...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THAT ZONE
FOR PERIODIC RAIN AND STORMS.

A WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS S OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NERN WY INTO SRN SD...WITH SLY WINDS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE W...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE OREGON COAST
RESULTING IN SCATTERED STORMS.

...SD AND NRN NEB...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL SD...AIDED BY WARM
ADVECTION ATOP THE SFC FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THESE CELLS MAY
PERSIST AS THEY SHIFT EWD INTO ERN SD AND WRN MN...WITH MARGINAL
HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CORES. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG
HEATING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN NEW STORMS OVER WRN
NEB/SWRN SD...WHICH WILL SHOULD PROPAGATE IN AN E/SEWD DIRECTION
WITH A THREAT OF WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL EARLY WHEN MODE IS MORE
CELLULAR.

...ARKLATEX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH WARM ALOFT...STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN OK INTO AR.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN AREAS OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE...POSSIBLY FOCUSED ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...OREGON INTO ERN WA...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES
WHICH WILL MAXIMIZE CONVECTION DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK CAPE. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND AROUND 30
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MOVING NEWD ACROSS OREGON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
WA LATER IN THE DAY.

...NC INTO SRN VA...
MODEST MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL EXIST FROM VA NWD AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...AND ALSO NEAR A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY AIDED BY HEATING AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERHAPS ALLOW
FOR A FEW FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2013

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