DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030855
SWOD48
SPC AC 030854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BEGIN OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO ON TUE/D4.
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BE A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND MN DURING THE DAY ON TUE...THEN INTO WI AND MI BY
WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SWWD OUT OF MN/WI INTO KS BY AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
TO CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH
THE TROUGH. SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
GIVEN FORECAST LONG HODOGRAPHS AND ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
TO THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY
WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS LATER IN THE
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON WED/D5...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUED EWD BUT THE UPPER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD...WHICH WILL DECREASE FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 08/03/2013

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