ACUS11 KWNS 021801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021801
MIZ000-021900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT FRI AUG 02 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021801Z - 021900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOPING STORMS.
THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A
CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM ROSCOMMON TO IOSCO COUNTIES WITH A DEEPENING
UPSTREAM CUMULUS FIELD INTO WEXFORD AND LAKE COUNTIES AS OF 1750Z.
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A
CONFLUENCE LINE WHICH PRECEDES THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE THE AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM OR MOIST...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
AND MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY COOL...AND THIS IS
RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT BOWING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..MEAD/GOSS.. 08/02/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44688629 45128540 44858352 44278209 43188216 42518287
42768485 43088609 43738675 44688629
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