MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1608

ACUS11 KWNS 031247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031246
NEZ000-COZ000-031415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462...

VALID 031246Z - 031415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY MOVE SWD ACROSS
WCNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW NEB IS CURRENTLY ON THE ERN
EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ENHANCED ACROSS WRN NEB AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ABOUT 50 KT. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CORES. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER
INSTABILITY IN CNTRL NEB AND LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 08/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...BOU...

LAT...LON 42810134 42280249 41680253 40960228 40470165 40460087
40859970 41269958 42470034 42810134

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