MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1685

ACUS11 KWNS 101557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101556
VAZ000-NCZ000-101730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN VA...N-CENTRAL/NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101556Z - 101730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THRU EARLY-MID AFTN.
ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS
NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK AND 15 PERCENT SVR WIND PROB ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL-SRN VA AND N-CENTRAL/NERN NC.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA GENLY WWD TO NEAR HOT
SPRINGS VA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. CONTINUED
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A LARGELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE BY EARLY AFTN
WITH MOD-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG/ OWING TO
WIDESPREAD LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS.

THE DISCUSSION AREA RESIDES ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER AREA VWP DATA SHOWS DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW WITH 25-35
KTS IN THE LOWER-MID LEVELS...SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN
VA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
THRU AFTN AS IT TRANSLATES EWD.

TSTMS CURRENTLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VA...AND PSBLY
N-CENTRAL/NERN NC. MOIST PROFILES /PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES/ AND GENLY POOR LAPSE RATES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...LIMITING
THE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 08/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37947941 38157831 38087747 38047677 37977644 37857576
37757568 37507564 37127568 36767571 36387569 36187569
36077584 36097610 35947733 35937840 36127973 36608034
37537977 37947941

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