MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1693

ACUS11 KWNS 111837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111836
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-111930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NRN AL...NWRN
GA...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111836Z - 111930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS AFTN ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
OUTFLOW FROM AN EARLIER TSTM COMPLEX. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER TSTM COMPLEX ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. RADAR
AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW WAS LOCATED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 40 W NASHVILLE TN TO 50 N TUPELO MS TO 20 S MEMPHIS TN
AS OF 18Z. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...AND BY MID AFTN
MLCAPES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS WEAK...BASED ON KOHX VWP...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AOB 20KTS.
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
THE STRONGER TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 08/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34248586 33908750 33778851 34018961 34429005 34639013
34768958 35198870 35658806 36228785 36288737 36018658
35628544 35208472 34498479 34248586

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