MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1697

ACUS11 KWNS 112201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112200
IAZ000-NEZ000-112300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NEB...NRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112200Z - 112300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL. OVERALL SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOW AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GROWN MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE INVOF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN IA
SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB. WEAK WAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOSTER A
CONTINUATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MOST OF THE MD AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
/N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ TO MID 80S /S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE/ AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE CLOUD
STREAKS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THERE IS LIKELY STILL
CINH OVER THIS AREA. ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY N OF THE BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN SUSTAINED BY WAA WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS AND MODESTLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6-6.5 DEG C PER KG/.

THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FOSTER A WIDESPREAD SVR
THREAT...PARTICULARLY SINCE IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE LIFT IT IS PROVIDING WILL
SOON WANE. REGARDLESS...MODEST INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SOME
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL N OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING SVR
WINDS AND/OR HAIL THAN THOSE TO THE N...BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
ANY THREAT BRIEF. AS SUCH...OVERALL SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 08/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42399653 42769587 43299441 43429320 43309174 42789159
42329253 41539663 42399653

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