MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1702

ACUS11 KWNS 122035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122035
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB...SERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122035Z - 122300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ELY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT MODESTLY RICH MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S IN MANY AREAS JUST E OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS -- INTO THE LOWER 60S -- ARE
FOUND OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE FLOW/TERRAIN-DRIVEN
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CO
FRONT RANGE...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FARTHER N INTO SERN WY AND
INVOF A FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM FAR SERN WY INTO NERN CO AND NWRN
KS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE FAIRLY WELL-STRUCTURED ANVILS
EMANATING FROM THIS CONVECTION AND EXTENDING DOWNSHEAR/EWD...IN
RESPONSE TO MODERATE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW/CONVECTIVE VENTILATION.
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WITH SVR HAIL/WIND OCCURRING ON SPORADIC BASIS...AS CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO HAVE A TENDENCY OF SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO LATE AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 6
KM AGL IS RELATIVELY MODEST -- GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS -- PER AREA
WIND PROFILER DATA...AND THIS MAY SERVE AS A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LESSEN THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
ALSO...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REDUCE
THE COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41450556 41700333 40990139 40320095 38170085 37100161
37250408 37980505 39500544 41450556

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