MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1703

ACUS11 KWNS 122053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122052
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...NE AR...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN AND
NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122052Z - 122215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS MOVE
SEWD AND CROSS THE MS RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SRN IL SWWD ACROSS SE MO INTO NRN AR ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS NE AR AND WRN TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE BECOME QUITE STEEP. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S F SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR WET DOWNBURSTS SHOULD EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDING TO MESOANALYSIS DATA...LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED THE MOST FROM NEAR MEMPHIS SWWD TO NEAR
PINE BLUFF. THIS AREA COULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON 34089022 34148950 34978812 35188776 35398755 35788769
36188821 36458856 37228871 37848896 37858962 37269045
36359117 35449188 34899209 34399152 34089022

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