MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1718

ACUS11 KWNS 141930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141929
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT WED AUG 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE...NW TX
PANHANDLE...NE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141929Z - 142100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CELLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR THE CO-KS
STATE LINE ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD
FROM NE NM INTO SERN CO. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000
J/KG RANGE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL
WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION MATURES AND NEW CELLS INITIATE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM.

..BROYLES/KERR.. 08/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35340288 36200242 36690183 37260164 38150167 38480191
38590233 38570284 38260320 37880327 37340344 36860381
36370439 35760468 35210476 34720457 34500414 34540371
34740313 35340288

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