MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1762

ACUS11 KWNS 231944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231943
MTZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231943Z - 232045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY A
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING NEWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN
MT. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND DPVA ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN MT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST HR ACROSS BEAVERHEAD
COUNTY. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM WITH TEMPERATURES
HEATING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S F...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG...DESPITE MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. WHILE THIS MAY LIMIT TSTM INTENSITY SOMEWHAT...MODERATE
MIDLEVEL FLOW /AROUND 40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT SOME TSTM
ORGANIZATION...WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF
AN ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46920944 46620939 46410946 45551000 45231060 44931140
44741211 44791273 45281306 46181285 46971266 47411211
47671111 47651041 47320982 46920944

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