MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1765

ACUS11 KWNS 242009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242009
MTZ000-IDZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN ID...FAR SWRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242009Z - 242115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS SRN AND ERN ID. COVERAGE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW INCREASINGLY ROBUST
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER SNAKE VALLEY OF S-CNTRL ID. THE
AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING...AND AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NRN
NV...WITH OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED OVER 1000
J/KG ACROSS MOST OF SRN/ERN ID. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN MT. 20-30 KT
OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS IMPLIED BY OBSERVED SFC T-TD
DEFICITS APPROACHING 40 F/...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE A FEW DMGG
WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. A LESSER THREAT FOR SMALL
TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY ALSO EXIST.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 45251346 45501253 45471167 45101123 44421126 43391174
42371273 42201350 42141444 42321506 42731537 43301518
43911489 44401447 44931394 45251346

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.