MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1767

ACUS11 KWNS 242243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242242
MNZ000-NDZ000-250015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NW MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...

VALID 242242Z - 250015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS BEEN UNREALIZED
TO THIS POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY/MID
EVENING STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF SEVERE HAIL/SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE NOW MIGRATING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MANITOBA...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SEASONABLY MOIST AND
CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE CAPE...BENEATH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. A 500 MB JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA REMAINS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS.

MID-LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY WARM...HOWEVER...AND UPPER SUPPORT FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BENEATH SHARP HIGH LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING DOES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE THROUGH BROADER SCALE
ANTICYCLONIC LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AND IT
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIFT COULD STILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF
THIS OCCURS...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WITHIN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE DEVILS
LAKE/GRAND FORKS/THIEF RIVER RALLS AREA...IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
STORM CLUSTER NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

..KERR.. 08/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48529883 49209876 49389718 49199552 48259534 47079701
46629871 47259964 47719945 48529883

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.