MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1768

ACUS11 KWNS 250041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250041
MNZ000-NDZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...

VALID 250041Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING NEAR THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AREA. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...AND WHETHER A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW 496. FOR NOW...WW 496 WILL BE EXTENDED
LOCALLY IN TIME AND AREA FOR GRAND FORKS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH DATA SUGGEST PASSAGE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE LOWER/ MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE 02-04Z
TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH COINCIDING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH WEAKENING OF
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE COMING FOCUSED ALONG...AND GENERALLY NORTH OF...THE
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOW APPROACHING THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA...
WHICH MAY TEND TO STRADDLE THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

..KERR.. 08/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48129127 47479280 47189502 46509656 46059745 46229915
47629783 48469715 49029672 48859405 48129127

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