MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1777

ACUS11 KWNS 262051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262050
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SD...FAR SRN AND SWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262050Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS PARTS OF NRN SD AND SRN ND BEFORE 23Z.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND COULD REQUIRE A WW.

DISCUSSION...TOWERING CU ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HR PER 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...INVOF A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY
ARCING FROM NWRN ND INTO E-CNTRL MT. SFC OBS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY
DELINEATES THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DRAPED ACROSS
S-CNTRL ND. WHILE STILL UNCERTAIN...FURTHER HEATING/WEAKENING CINH
COMBINED WITH WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE UPSTREAM IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.

ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING
2000 J/KG /PER RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES/ ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER ND. AND DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ELY SFC WINDS BENEATH APPROXIMATELY 40 KT WLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 08/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45199829 44920054 44890208 45260326 45990390 47100418
47440386 47590329 47430291 46890228 46640157 46570081
46499939 46359824 46249775 46039740 45489737 45199829

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.