MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1786

ACUS11 KWNS 272314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272314
MIZ000-280045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE AUG 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498...

VALID 272314Z - 280045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS HAVE YET TO SUBSTANTIALLY STRENGTHEN...BUT THIS
STILL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER ...THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS ALLOWING CONSIDERABLE ANVIL LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE POTENTIAL NEAR SURFACE INFLOW OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLINT AREA.
THIS MAY BE THE PRIMARY REASON CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO
INTENSIFY...AT LEAST TO THIS POINT...BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALSO APPEARS RATHER MODEST. STILL THE MOST
VIGOROUS CELL NOW APPROACHING FLINT HAS BEEN GENERATING RATHER
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND RATES HAVE BEEN STEADY OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS...AND AN
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...MAY NOT YET BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...PARTICULARLY NEAR/SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF LANSING...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOST
STRONGLY HEATED /AROUND 90F/...MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

..KERR.. 08/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43798535 43898463 43158363 42548334 42028360 41818499
41978598 43058586 43428585 43798535

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