MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1792

ACUS11 KWNS 282253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282253
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-290130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN OH...FAR SERN INDIANA...ERN
KY...CNTRL/WRN WV...WRN VA...FAR NWRN NC...FAR NERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282253Z - 290130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONFLUENT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INVOF A WEAK FRONT SAGGING
SWD ACROSS SRN OH...SERN INDIANA...AND NWRN WV HAS BEEN THE FOCUS
FOR RECENT CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CNTRL WV ON THE NOSE OF A 25-35-KT
WLY LLJ PER PLAN VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL VWP DATA. DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION WILL BE STEERED SEWD TOWARD THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT BY 25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL
NWLY FLOW. NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SWD-MOVING LLJ INTO THE EVENING. WITH INFLOW TRAJECTORIES
EMANATING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL KY WHERE STRONGER INSOLATION/DIABATIC
SFC HEATING OCCURRED...AN INFLUX OF MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MAY SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING -- AIDED BY MASS
CONVERGENCE AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ.

MODEST DEEP SHEAR ON THE FRINGES OF A DISORGANIZED MID-ATLANTIC
UPPER IMPULSE COULD FOSTER A FEW ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS/MULTICELLS WITH PERHAPS SPORADIC DMGG WINDS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE NEUTRAL OR PERHAPS ONLY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BASED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SVR THREAT WILL BE UNLIKELY WITH POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION MAY
ALSO LESSEN THE SVR THREAT...AND AREAS OF LIMITED INSOLATION INDUCED
BY EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIP IN WV MAY REDUCE THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF
STRONGER CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 08/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 39098514 39078150 38638036 36957940 36288060 36428282
37158414 39098514

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