ACUS11 KWNS 292020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292019
MIZ000-WIZ000-292245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL UPPER MI...NRN WI.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292019Z - 292245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LONG-LIVED MCS THAT HAS CROSSED NRN MN AND WRN LS APPEARS
TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO DESTABILIZING LAND
ENVIRONMENT OF FAR NRN WI AND EXTREME WRN UPPER MI. WHILE
PARAMETERS FOR SVR APPEAR MRGL...STRENGTH OF ACCOMPANYING
PERTURBATION APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS.
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX HAS BEEN PRODUCING NON-SVR/SUB-50-KT GUSTS OVER
LAND...INCLUDING STATIONS OVER WHICH IT HAS PASSED...ALTHOUGH
OPEN-WATER GUSTS AROUND 60 KT WERE MEASURED ON VESSEL MAST EXTENDING
TO NEAR BASE OF MARINE LAYER. FOREGOING AIR MASS HAS UNDERGONE SOME
SFC DIABATIC HEATING...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F OFFSETTING
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IN
MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...BOTH SFC DEW POINTS AND FLOW
ALOFT DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT...AND FURTHER INSOLATION WILL BE
LIMITED BY PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER LARGELY RELATED TO ANVIL CANOPY.
..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 08/29/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...
LAT...LON 46199078 46229047 46409017 46599017 46649021 46688997
46698977 46738917 46728854 46478680 45748702 44648804
45638988 46199078
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