MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1817

ACUS11 KWNS 312003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312002
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-312100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312002Z - 312100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SUB-SEVERE BUT BRIEF/ISOLATED SVR IS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED AND STRENGTHENED
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
CNTRL NY/VT BORDER SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO N-CNTRL PA. INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA IS FAIRLY MODEST /MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ AND
SHEAR IS WEAK /19 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR PER BGM VAD PROFILE/...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS A RESULT
OF CELL MERGERS. HOWEVER...THE TREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW
TO MERIT A WW.

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 08/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41617814 42227619 42637474 42937394 43167319 42827290
42037371 41237574 41207695 41617814

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