ACUS01 KWNS 110051
SWODY1
SPC AC 110049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2013
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PERSIST...AND POSSIBLY EVEN NOCTURNALLY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...WITHIN A NEAR-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS INTO IA AND WI/LOWER
MI. A VERY LOCALIZED DOWNBURST RISK MAY PERSIST IN THE
SHORT-TERM...BUT WILL OTHERWISE WANE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO COOL THIS EVENING. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY
MILD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS
SAMPLED BY 00Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NY/NEW ENGLAND...
WESTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WITH THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK
SUBSIDENCE/NEUTRAL FORCING...AND THE BRUNT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SEEMINGLY LIMITED
TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
EVEN BE THE CASE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE /3000-4000 J PER KG MUCAPE FROM 00Z BUFFALO AND ALBANY
SOUNDINGS/. THAT SAID...AS SUBTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
EVOLVE LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
ISOLATED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP/MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
..GUYER.. 09/11/2013
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