DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300101
SWODY1
SPC AC 300058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A PROGRESSIVE AND INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING SWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WRN WA/ORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OBJECTIVE WIND FIELDS INDICATED AN
ACCOMPANYING 100+ KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE
LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS
LIKELY ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF CLOUDS 30-90 MILES WEST OF
THE WA AND NWRN ORE COASTS AT 00Z. THE TROUGH...ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS /PER FORECAST AND 00Z
SOUNDINGS IN WRN WA AND ORE/ WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL 4-8 DEGREES AS -20 TO -25 C
VALUES SPREAD INLAND OVER WA AND NRN ORE BY 06Z...RESULTING IN
STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS INCREASING THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATER RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY AN ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS TO EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OVER SWRN
WA/NWRN ORE PER MODEL FORECASTS...THE 5 PERCENT DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXTENDED E/SEWD TO THE GENERAL TSTM LINE IN
THESE AREAS.

..PETERS.. 09/30/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.