DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160036
SWODY1
SPC AC 160034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/ERN ORE/WA...FAR WRN ID...
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS OBSERVED THIS EVENING
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ORE/WA...WHICH HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES
NEAR 1.0 INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000
J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING NEWD
INTO THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER SLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-50 KT WILL
PROMOTE A MIXTURE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS
WHICH WILL ADVANCE NWD DURING THE NIGHT FROM ERN ORE INTO ERN WA.
THE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN KS/NRN OK AND THE FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE...
SURFACE FRONT WAS ANALYZED THIS EVENING FROM E-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO
THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH MERGERS EXPECTED TO YIELD A DISORGANIZED MCS AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE SWD INTO NRN OK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING COMPOSITE COLD POOL AND SAGGING SURFACE
FRONT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..GARNER.. 09/16/2013

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