DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291956
SWODY1
SPC AC 291954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 09/29/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
AND WEAKENING...AS ANOTHER TROUGH NEAR 47 N AND 136 W APPROACHES THE
WA COAST THIS EVENING. LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEAK BUOYANCY AND A RISK FOR
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE PAC NW COAST. THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
LIKEWISE...WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH THE GREATER RISK FOR
STRONG GUSTS ACCOMPANYING AN ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS SE TX AND
LA IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT PRECEDING A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
BUOYANCY IS ALREADY MARGINAL ACROSS THIS AREA...WHERE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

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