DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 262003
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 09/26/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AS DEEP...POSITIVE-TILT
TROUGH PROGRESSES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME
TIME...WEAKENING TROUGH NOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE ESE
INTO THE ATLANTIC.

AT LWR LVLS..THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TO THE SWRN
DESERTS. THE NRN PART OF THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE E INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS/WRN MN LATER TODAY/TNGT AS ASSOCIATED UPR VORT CONTINUES NE
ACROSS SK/MB. FARTHER SW...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME
STNRY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AS DEEP FLOW BACKS AND LOW-LVL WAA
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR VORT NOW ENTERING THE SRN GRT BASIN.

ELSEWHERE...SEVERAL WEAK W-E FRONTS WILL TRACK ESE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING/VEERING DEEP FLOW ON SRN
FRINGE OF CAROLINAS TROUGH. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN STORMS OVER CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALSO COULD ACCOMPANY ZONE OF
STRENGTHENING WAA OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/S FL THIS AFTN...
COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG W-E FRONTAL
SEGMENTS PROGRESSING SLOWLY S ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS
OF THE PENINSULA WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. COUPLED WITH MODERATE...DEEP NWLY MID-LVL FLOW...RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/...AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR
ALOFT /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW PULSE/MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR BRIEFLY SVR SFC WINDS.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY EARLY FRI...
LOW-LVL WAA WILL INCREASE OVER ERN SD AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE
TNGT AND EARLY FRI AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OVER AREA AND
SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO AOA 45 KTS. COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/EML ADVECTED NEWD ON ERN SIDE OF POSITIVE-TILT
TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD ELEVATED
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z FRI. MOISTURE WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN
COMPARATIVELY LIMITED...WITH PW AOA 1.25 INCHES...AND NO UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS APPARENT ATTM TO ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...OVERALL
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.

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