ACUS01 KWNS 260045
SWODY1
SPC AC 260043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S...ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS WYOMING INTO THE VICINITY
OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDER TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A SLOW
MOVING/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH STORMS NOW FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
JUST TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE DEEPER COLD SURGE... THEY STILL APPEAR
LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED
COOL/STABLE LAYER. DOWNWARD MIXING OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET DOES NOT APPEAR
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH CONVECTION TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS DO NOT APPEAR
PARTICULARLY LARGE NEAR CONVECTION NOW...AND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME ANY MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME. WITH MOISTURE AND CAPE ALSO
RATHER MODEST...SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO MEET
SLIGHT RISK CATEGORIZATION.
..KERR.. 09/26/2013
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