DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE MS VALLEY REGION WILL ADVANCE THROUGH
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE AND DEVELOP EWD THROUGH WRN STATES. A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX
NOW ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REACH SRN
SASKATCHEWAN EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO EJECT
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A FRONT IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE OVER THE SERN STATES...WHILE A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COASTAL
REGION. FARTHER WEST...A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WLY
FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH. NRN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH ERN MT EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO EJECTING VORT MAX.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL
STATES IN VICINITY OCCLUDING FRONT AND SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT. DESPITE FORMATION OF A STRONG SLY LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH...NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S
BENEATH EWD ADVECTING EML PLUME RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND A
STRONGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE DAY. SECONDARY IMPULSE
SHOULD LIFT NEWD THROUGH NERN WY...ERN MT AND WRN ND...AUGMENTING
DEEP ASCENT IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...UP
TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL. GIVEN EXPECTED MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..DIAL.. 09/24/2013

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