DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110851
SWOD48
SPC AC 110851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND MOVE THIS FEATURE OFF
THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. ALSO ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS MOVE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES WITH CONVECTION FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY/DAY
5...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IN THE MID-MS VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY
WSWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY/DAY 6 INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT.

AT THIS POINT...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD OCCUR EACH DAY IN
THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
AND GFS SUGGEST THAT FLOW WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED IN NATURE. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL NOT FORECAST AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FOR THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 09/11/2013

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