DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140843
SWOD48
SPC AC 140843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A
PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS INTO CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A
MORE AMPLIFIED/STAGNANT PATTERN POTENTIALLY EVOLVING THEREAFTER.
INITIALLY...LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY
4/TUESDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OTHERWISE GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE PREDICTABILITY/EXPECTED MAGNITUDE DO NOT WARRANT
30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT RISK AREAS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SEVERE RISK COULD THEN
POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.

..GUYER.. 09/14/2013

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