DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290810
SWOD48
SPC AC 290809

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE WRN TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES ON D4/D5...WITH HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE PLAINS ON
THU/D5. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ROUGHLY
FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK NEWD INTO WI BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/D5. THE MOST
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FROM NERN
OK INTO ERN KS AND MO. BUT GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO
RUN...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM FRI/D6 ONWARD WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SLOWS AND DIGS THE TROUGH SWD WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. PERFECT PROG OF THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A
SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVER MUCH OF OK INTO
MO...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE OH
VALLEY. AS SUCH...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY AREAS.

..JEWELL.. 09/29/2013

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