ACUS11 KWNS 011857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011856
INZ000-ILZ000-012130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1826
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN SEP 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011856Z - 012130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER SRN FRINGES STL
AREA...HOWEVER INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE EWD INTO IL.
SVR POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTN.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX SFC MESOANALYSIS FEATURES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY --
FROM EARLIER/MORNING MCS OVER WRN/CENTRAL MO -- ARCHING FROM
N-CENTRAL MO THROUGH STL AREA THEN SSWWD OVER ERN OZARKS AND NRN AR.
WEAK SFC LOW WAS EVIDENT ALONG BOUNDARY INVOF STL...WITH
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS IL...ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO AND 20-30 NM N OF I-70. BOUNDARY AND RELATED ISALLOBARIC
PERTURBATION SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO SRN IL AND DECELERATE.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BETWEEN ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO W...AND
PERSISTENT AREA OF STG INSOLATION OVER MS RIVER AREA AND IL...ALSO
MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGIME.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE JUXTAPOSED FEATURES WILL IMPINGE ON
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS PORTIONS
ERN IL...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
RISK OF SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND MRGL SVR HAIL. FOREGOING AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F AND DEW
POINTS COMMONLY MID-70S...YIELDING NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/KG LOCATED S OF WHERE TROUGH AND SEPARATE
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY MERGE IN EASTERN IL...AND N OF OUTFLOW
FROM MID-SOUTH CONVECTION. WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST...LIMITING OVERALL ORGANIZATION UNLESS
SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPS TO FOSTER FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL
FORCED ASCENT AND GREATER DENSITY/COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 09/01/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38108998 39029006 39568805 38658731 37808805 38108998
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