ACUS11 KWNS 012153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012152
MIZ000-012245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1827
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT SUN SEP 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012152Z - 012245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS NRN
LOWER MI AND OVER LM WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE HRS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL AND A FEW DMGG
WIND GUSTS. THE NEED FOR A WW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS THE CURRENT
THREAT IS RELATIVELY CONFINED...BUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TSTM MOVING ACROSS KOLKASKA AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...SFC CONVERGENCE IS WEAK INVOF THIS STORM...AND STRONGER
FARTHER W ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER LM. SUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED TO YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN AND WRN LOWER MI. LATEST
WIND PROFILE SAMPLED BY APX VWP DATA SHOWS SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLYS
IN THE MIDLEVELS...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR /I.E. NEAR
40 KT/ FOR MAINTAINING STORM INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION WITH ESEWD
PROPAGATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND A SUBSEQUENT THREAT FOR HAIL
AND A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ATTM
REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WW REGARD COVERAGE OF THE THREAT...WITH
ONLY ONE STORM CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SVR POTENTIAL...AND THE SHORT
REMAINING TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR PEAK INSTABILITY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 09/01/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44718370 43768431 43198524 43088599 43508649 44628539
44738523 44998506 45198466 45178436 45028403 44718370
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