MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1834

ACUS11 KWNS 032015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032014
AZZ000-032215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT TUE SEP 03 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032014Z - 032215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF A FEW SVR
WIND GUSTS. SHORT DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ HAS RECENTLY
STRENGTHENED WITH MODEST HAIL CORES NOTED WITHIN THE STRONGEST
CELLS. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS WITHIN A RELATIVE CAPE
MIN AND STILL CONTAINS MLCINH...SUGGESTING THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
ONCE IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES
/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S/...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SOME STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE. SHORT DURATION AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 09/03/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 32541187 32851150 32961118 32731082 32461064 31881062
31461081 31411118 31511162 31791198 32161208 32541187

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