ACUS11 KWNS 042048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042048
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-042245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1835
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT WED SEP 04 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NV...SRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042048Z - 042245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY A LOCALIZED WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER NRN
NV INTO SWRN ID WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD GROW UPSCALE
AND SHIFT NWD WITH TIME AS OUTFLOW PRODUCTION INCREASES PER SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS. GPS PWAT SENSORS DO INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
OUTFLOW PRODUCTION WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00 INCH.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL FOR ANY SUPERCELLS...BUT A FEW
LONGER LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
..JEWELL/GOSS.. 09/04/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...
LAT...LON 40961346 40001417 39741484 39791541 40041620 40461724
40781782 41131830 42961915 44331885 44531778 44111610
43651465 43021361 42311323 40961346
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