ACUS11 KWNS 051907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051906
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-052000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1838
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT THU SEP 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...WRN ID
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051906Z - 052000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR ORE AND IDAHO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION.
DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG DCVA APPEARS TO BE REFLECTED IN
DEVELOPING LINE OF TSTMS THAT CURRENTLY ARC FROM LANE COUNTY
ORE...SEWD INTO KLAMATH COUNTY. EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ERN ORE ATOP EXPANDING/DEEPENING CU FIELD.
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS ERN ORE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE 50S AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING THROUGH THE 70S...YIELDING SBCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 J/KG. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THIS REGION AND AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO SERN ORE
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL BE
COMMON ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE NUMEROUS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A
FEW BANDED STRUCTURES LATER THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS
ID INTO FAR WESTERN MT.
..DARROW/GOSS.. 09/05/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...
LAT...LON 42031847 43471957 44362123 45772059 45641690 43181526
41891592 42031847
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