MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1839

ACUS11 KWNS 052032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052031
MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-052230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT THU SEP 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ID...EXTREME SW MT...FAR NW UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052031Z - 052230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME SVR POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS SW ID AND SE ORE HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
BOTH INCREASED FORCING -- AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD -- AND
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATE SOME CINH STILL REMAINS BUT IT
WILL LIKELY ERODE SOON AS HEATING CONTINUES. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED AT BYI...PIH...AND IDA WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE EITHER REMAINED
STEADY OR INCREASED SLIGHTLY.

WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED /RECENT MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/...STRONG
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE.
THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40
TO 50 KT/ WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. AS SUCH...SVR
WIND/HAIL IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/GOSS.. 09/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 42031176 41131309 41031357 41101390 42001402 43541451
44711462 45431326 45151133 43611106 42331152 42031176

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