ACUS11 KWNS 061945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061944
MTZ000-062045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061944Z - 062045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 2030Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR INTENSIFYING CONVECTION THAT MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND.
DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
FORCING IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ID INTO WRN MT. IN SUPPORT OF
THIS...VIS/RADAR EXHIBIT DEEPENING BAND OF CU/TSTMS ARCING FROM
TETON COUNTY SWD ACROSS DEER LODGE INTO BEAVERHEAD COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ABSAROKA RANGE. AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS SWRN MT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1500
J/KG...THOUGH 18Z SOUNDING FROM TFX SUGGESTS PLAINS AIRMASS HAS YET
TO WARM ENOUGH FOR SFC PARCELS TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.
WITH TIME INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS MID LEVELS
COOL DUE TO APPROACHING TROUGH. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS
OBSERVED THERE IS AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND
PRIMARY STORM MODE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY REMAIN AS SUCH...THOUGH
MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. HAIL/WIND ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/MEAD.. 09/06/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 45531328 48491253 49141018 48290880 45261025 45531328
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