ACUS11 KWNS 082012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082012
MOZ000-KSZ000-082215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN SEP 08 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...KS...MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082012Z - 082215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INTENSE TSTMS WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF DOWNBURST
WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY DRIFT SOUTH ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER IN
THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORM
COVERAGE/DURATION MAY NOT RISE TO THE LEVEL WHERE A WATCH IS NEEDED
BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR STJ OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF INTENSE SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
LOCAL REMOVAL OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND PERHAPS GLANCING
INFLUENCE FROM REMNANT MCV ACROSS ERN MO. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ERN KS AND THE MKC AREA CLIMBING INTO THE 100-105F
RANGE...MOST INHIBITION EXHIBITED ON MORNING SOUNDING FROM TOP IS
REMOVED AND MLCAPE VALUES BECOME QUITE HIGH AROUND 3000 J/KG. WITH
40F SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. GREATEST LIMITATION IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
SHEAR GIVEN THE REGION LIES ALMOST DIRECTLY BENEATH STRONG
ANTICYCLONE WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS AOB 15KT AND WEAKENING.
THUS...EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED AND A WATCH DOES NOT
APPEAR NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/08/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39399405 39089400 38739410 38699474 38779510 38949537
39199577 39319580 39499582 39719543 39739502 39399405
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