MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1861

ACUS11 KWNS 090051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090050
MTZ000-090245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1861
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SUN SEP 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL/ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...

VALID 090050Z - 090245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD ERN
MT...WITH ONGOING/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN ARCING/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS CONTINUING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT...WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW AFFECTING MUSSELSHELL/PETROLEUM/WRN
GARFIELD COUNTIES. OTHER/ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW...AND ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

WITH TIME HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD EXHIBIT A SLOW DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
STORMS SHIFTING E OF THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...THE
NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW E OF THE CURRENT WATCH INTO E CENTRAL AND
NERN MT APPEARS UNNECESSARY ATTM. IN THE MEAN TIME...THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..GOSS.. 09/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 48400785 48200699 47560659 45180661 45000951 45770997
46590898 46920843 47620812 48110867 48400785

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