MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1874

ACUS11 KWNS 112021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112021
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-112215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112021Z - 112215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI AND
INTO NRN IND AND OH WITH CU FIELDS INCREASING. GPS PWAT SENSORS SHOW
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN A SW-NE ORIENTED PLUME FROM
NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.60". MEANWHILE...A
MODIFIED 18Z DETROIT SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...WITH A MODESTLY LONG HODOGRAPH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS.

RECENTLY...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO SLY ACROSS SERN LOWER
MI...ENHANCING A CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SWRN LOWER MI NEWD TOWARD LAKE
HURON AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN AREA FOR INITIATION. STORMS COULD
THEN MATURE AND MOVE TOWARD THE DETROIT METRO AREA LATER TODAY WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 09/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON 41808263 41538374 41408430 41398612 41368704 41488733
41668732 41958626 42448522 42918470 43578374 43828326
43828268 43498217 43128191 42688184 42398182 42148199
41808263

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