ACUS11 KWNS 152200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152200
ORZ000-WAZ000-160030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...ERN WA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152200Z - 160030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
DEVELOP AS STORMS LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE IN BOTH RADAR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE UMATILLA RANGE AND
OCHOCO/STRAWBERRY MTNS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE
ORE COAST. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1 TO 1.25 INCH PW VALUES PER GPS DATA AND HOT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL SWLYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPEAR TO
GENERALLY LAG THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE HOT BOUNDARY
LAYER/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE FORCED ASCENT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A SHORT LINE SEGMENT COULD DEVELOP N/NEWD WITH A DEEPENING COLD
POOL BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 19Z HRRR
WITH THE SIMULATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
..GRAMS/GOSS.. 09/15/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...
LAT...LON 44912065 46082051 47182034 47921975 48221903 48071812
47191732 45851723 44521726 43641789 43291840 43261871
43861972 44382041 44912065
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