ACUS11 KWNS 182257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182256
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1893
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 182256Z - 190000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF
SERN ND AND MOVING INTO NWRN MN WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
BRIEF TORNADOES. A WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM NW OF HURON TO N OF ABERDEEN WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED. LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES NEAR THE TROUGH/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. GIVEN THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE NOT ONLY FOR IN-SITU
DEVELOPMENT...BUT FOR WRN SD ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EWD AND EVENTUALLY
AFFECT THESE AREAS AS WELL.
..JEWELL/MEAD.. 09/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 44909707 44759752 44679851 44689894 45019922 45829874
46739840 47169794 47369584 46729534 45979560 45419610
44909707
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