ACUS11 KWNS 192129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192129
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-192300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 192129Z - 192300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST NE OF THE
CURRENT WATCH WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED. A NEW WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH TALL
UPDRAFTS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR
FORWARD PROPAGATION WITH DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL.
..JEWELL/MEAD.. 09/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41399407 42379258 42619108 43469033 43878947 43988835
43808771 43178739 42688752 42288778 40908966 40679127
40699215 40679350 40689413 40939423 41399407
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