MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1909

ACUS11 KWNS 241531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241531
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1909
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL MS TO WESTERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241531Z - 241730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN
AL.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS HAS
RECENTLY SHOWN MODEST/GRADUAL SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MS...EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST OF JACKSON TO NEAR THE NATCHEZ VICINITY AS OF 1515Z. WHILE
EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT /12Z JACKSON OBSERVED
SOUNDING/ WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...SOME
ADDITIONAL HEATING...A HIGH-MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND 2+ INCH PW/...ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
ADDITIONAL LINE INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE WHERE THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
LINE INTERCEPTS A WEAK NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT. WITH
TIME...COLD POOL EXPANSION/FORWARD PROPAGATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL VIA SMALL SCALE BOWING WITHIN
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION LOADING. WHILE DEEP
LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SRH /JACKSON WSR-88D VWP FEATURES 100+ M2 PER S2 0-1 KM SRH/ WITHIN
A HIGH-MOISTURE CONTENT BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT A TORNADO
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 09/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31709137 32269092 32689022 32838962 32818887 32238821
31268892 31459096 31709137

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