MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1911

ACUS11 KWNS 241834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241833
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-242000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MS TO SOUTHWEST AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241833Z - 242000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE/PERHAPS
MODESTLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS INTO
SOUTHWEST AL.

DISCUSSION...THE BOWING BRUNT OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING /30 KT/
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE I-59
CORRIDOR INCLUDING AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN AS OF 1815Z.
AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...STRATUS CONTINUES TO THIN SOMEWHAT WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING /NOW SOME LOWER 80S INTO AREAS SUCH AS
KPIB/ IN CONCERT WITH A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS
WARMING IN THE PRESENCE OF A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IS NOW
LIKELY SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR ABOVE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION/PRECIPITATION LOADING WITH
THE EXISTING LINEAR/BOWING COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SOME RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
I-59 INTO SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS/BACKBUILDING
ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK COULD LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF THE STRONGER
QLCS ELEMENTS WITH ADDITIONAL BOW DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME WITHIN MOIST
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND INCREASING ORGANIZATIONAL/INTENSITY TRENDS COULD
PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 09/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31119094 31889000 32518918 32298803 31628746 30628753
30488928 30729069 31119094

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.