MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1914

ACUS11 KWNS 251950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251950
MTZ000-WYZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1914
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WY/SOUTHEAST MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251950Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
MT...WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS BEING CAPABLE OF SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A DEEPENING /994 MB/ SURFACE LOW IS NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL WY IN VICINITY OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WHILE A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WY THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR/EAST OF THE
FRONT...A CU FIELD ATOP A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL WY AS OF
1930Z. AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA/UPPER JET
EXIT REGION...AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A MARGINALLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ANY MODESTLY SUSTAINED /ESPECIALLY LIGHTNING-PRODUCING/
UPDRAFT WILL COINCIDE WITH 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-6 KM
PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND THE RIVERTON WSR-88D VWP. GIVEN A
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG MEAN/DEEP LAYER
FLOW...THE SCENARIO WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS
ASIDE FROM SOME HAIL.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 09/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 42090976 43150868 44530669 46230464 44300410 43130546
41820648 41430788 41420953 42090976

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