MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 132013
FFGMPD
NMZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-140130-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0250
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHWEST CO...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 132012Z - 140130Z

SUMMARY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

DISCUSSION...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING DURING THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
JUST LIKE EARLIER IN THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED CU GENERALLY CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PART OF NM...WITH EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE WERE ALREADY IN PLACE AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTH. THE BIG
LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CLOUD COVER HAS HELD BACK THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NM. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF DESTABILIZATION.

THE FFG VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW IN THIS REGION GIVEN RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THUS FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 31550804 32530904 35340902 36610840 37430728 37060591
35610471 33770448 31640495 31160658 31550804

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