MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 241612
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-242010-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0263
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED......CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241610Z - 242010Z

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON A PWAT AXIS MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS
AND NEARBY LA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ON AN AXIS OF PWAT (WITH VALUES NEAR 2.10 INCHES) OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS INTO NEARBY LA. THE INFLOW IS RELATIVELY
WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO FEED THE ONGOING CONVECTION. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP SEEM TO WEAKEN THIS AREA A BIT TOO
QUICKLY...AND BASED ON THE CONVECTION AND EARLIER RAINFALL TO THE
NORTH...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE
THROUGH 19Z.

AFTER THIS TIME...NEAR TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST PWAT VALUES
DROPPING OFF AS THE CONVECTION MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AFTER THAT TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 31709205 33429040 33858877 32708869 30679024 30559169
30909225 31709205

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