MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 241958
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250105-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0264
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241956Z - 250105Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST AL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...CELLS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO MERGE WITH
THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TOPS ARE AGAIN COOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN AR. THE CELLS
FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE ARE FORMING ON THE PWAT
AXIS (NEAR 2.10 INCHES...WHICH IS AROUND TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL)IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT 850 MB FLOW.

THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW
SIMILAR VALUES...WITH AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THREE
HOURS ENDING AT 00Z. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEAR THE BOTTOM
END OF THE ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WHICH
COULD IN TURN RESULT IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 32098713 30928788 30188930 30518991 32068978 33058882
33068752 32098713

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