DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141257
SWODY1
SPC AC 141255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP NE INTO CNTRL NEB THIS EVE BEFORE
DECELERATING/CLOSING OFF OVER ERN SD EARLY TUE AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX
AMPLIFIES SWD ACROSS ERN ID AND WRN WY TO MAINTAIN LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH IN THE WEST.

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CO SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
ENE FROM NE CO TO NE NEB BY THIS EVE. COLD FRONT TRAILING GENERALLY
SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS
TODAY...OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER SW NEB...WRN KS...AND SE
CO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT. MORE NUMEROUS BUT WEAKER
STORMS MAY OCCUR IN BROAD SWATH OF WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TX
N/NE INTO MO...IA...AND SD.

...CNTRL PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH MIDDAY FROM
FAR ERN CO INTO NW KS AND MUCH OF NEB AS STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT/DCVA OVERSPREAD REGION AHEAD OF CO VORT. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY SUFFICIENTLY
INTENSIFY TO POSE AN ISOLD RISK FOR DMGG SFC WINDS AS 60-70 KT 500
MB JET OVERSPREADS REGION.

BY EARLY AFTN...MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD OCCUR OVER NRN AND WRN KS
AND WRN/CNTRL NEB IN DEVELOPING DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO
IMPULSE...AND N OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL JET IN SRN KS. COUPLED WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW
/WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S F IN CNTRL NEB TO THE
LOW TO MID 60S IN KS/ AND FALLING MID-LVL TEMPS...EXPECT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF LOW TO MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH...WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 500
TO PERHAPS 1000 J/KG.

SCTD LOW-TOPPED TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE MERGING BOUNDARIES BY
EARLY AFTN IN PARTS OF KS AND SW/S CNTRL NEB...WITH LINEAR FORCING
AND CONTINUED SFC HEATING FOSTERING UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO
BROKEN LINES LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. A
SEPARATE...SMALLER AREA OF STORMS MAY FORM NEAR SFC LOW IN W CNTRL
NEB.

WITH UPR-LVL SWLYS IN EXCESS OF 100 KT ATOP A 40+ KT SLY LLJ...SETUP
MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR WIND AND HAIL.
AND...WHILE BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE AND AREAL
EXTENT...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2 S-2/ MAY
YIELD A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY
ENE ACROSS KS AND CNTRL/ERN NEB THROUGH MID EVE...BUT WITH A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SVR RISK AS THE ACTIVITY OUTRUNS RELATIVELY
NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
CONTINUES NNE TOWARD SD/MN.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/14/2013

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